On Monday, the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks took part in battles against two of the Western Conference’s top teams. The Bucks took down the Utah Jazz, but the 76ers fell to Most Valuable Player-hopeful Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
And while one game usually has little impact on the playoff picture, that game now serves as the difference between the No. 2-seeded Bucks and the No. 3-seeded 76ers. If the standings hold, that one game could decide home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
With just under four weeks remaining in the regular season and the standings as tight as can be, we could see plenty of movement atop the East. Just 4.5 games separate the top-seeded Miami Heat and No. 5 Chicago Bulls.
Just 2.5 games sit between the Bucks from the Bulls. All the while, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors are in a deadlock in the race to avoid the No. 7 seed and dreaded the Play-In Tournament (which is lovely when you’re ninth or tenth in the standings, but less so if you’re seventh or eighth).
Each game will be crucial over the next four weeks as the playoff picture begins to take shape. In the 2-5 race alone, there remain four head-to-head matchups, with the current pack leader – the Bucks – involved in three of them.
How about the Bulls, who are a startling 1-10 against the Heat, Bucks, 76ers, and Celtics this season. A push to the No. 3 seed could avoid all of these teams until the second round, with earlier a first-round against the Cavaliers or Raptors, who they’ve taken four of six against.
Would a team load manage to manipulate the standings? The Bulls may fight and claw to climb to third, but the 76ers may just as well prefer to fall to No. 4. While it’s easy to say this from an outside perspective, it’s hard to see any of these teams intentionally losing a prime-time matchup against one another to land them in their preferred playoff position.
As the stretch run of the 2021-22 season takes its shape, each night will add a new wrinkle into an already complicated Eastern Conference playoff picture.
The Bucks face the 76ers, Bulls, and Celtics one more time each, while the Celtics and Bulls meet once in a game that could theoretically determine home-court in the first round.
And when the Raptors and Cavaliers meet in Toronto on March 24, it could be the deciding factor on who gets a week off in mid-April and who has to enter a dogfight with Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets in the Play-In Tournament.
Beyond the scheduling of these critical games, each team has its calculus over where they may want to end up in the standings when the postseason begins.
In theory, a higher seed is better, but a No. 2 seed could run the risk of facing the fully-loaded Nets in the first round. This could be the exact type of decision Philadelphia needs to make in the coming weeks. After a recent blowout at the hands of the Nets, are they better suited staying at No. 3 or perhaps even dropping a spot to avoid a playoff matchup against Ben Simmons’ new team?
Perhaps the Cavaliers – whose length and size have allowed them to go 2-1 against the Bucks but are currently 0-2 against the quicker 76ers – would want to coordinate their place in the standings with the defending champions.
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