The NBA will hold its draft lottery on May 17, and the field of 14 teams is nearly set. The lottery determines the fate of a franchise, but the worst record doesn’t mean the top pick is a lock.
The Houston Rockets (20-62) earned that distinction but only have a 14 percent chance at No. 1. The good news for Houston fans is that the team won’t drop lower than fifth (though the odds of a top-four pick are only slightly more favorable at 52.14 percent).
It helps that the 2022 NBA Draft projects to have a lot of talent at the top, including prospects like Jabari Smith (Auburn), Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), Paolo Banchero (Duke), Jaden Ivey (Purdue), Keegan Murray (Iowa) and Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky).
The following table shows each team’s odds at a top-four pick:
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Top-4 |
| Houston Rockets | 14.0% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 52.14% |
| Orlando Magic | 14.0% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 52.14% |
| Detroit Pistons | 14.0% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 52.14% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 12.5% | 12.23% | 11.89% | 11.46% | 48.08% |
| Indiana Pacers | 10.5% | 10.54% | 10.56% | 10.53% | 42.13% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.41% | 9.62% | 37.23% |
| Sacramento Kings | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.14% | 8.52% | 31.96% |
| New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers) | 6.0% | 6.34% | 6.74% | 7.22% | 26.3% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 4.5% | 4.83% | 5.23% | 5.71% | 20.27% |
| Washington Wizards | 3.0% | 3.27% | 3.6% | 4.01% | 13.88% |
| New York Knicks | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.45% | 2.76% | 9.41% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers) | 1.5% | 1.66% | 1.86% | 2.1% | 7.12% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.0% | 1.11% | 1.25% | 1.43% | 4.79% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 0.50% | 0.56% | 0.63% | 0.72% | 2.41% |
Only four teams win the lottery, but what about the rest? What would an unsuccessful result be for each franchise?
| Team | Possibilities | ||||
| Houston Rockets | 5th – 47.86% | ||||
| Orlando Magic | 5th – 27.84% | 6th 20.02% | |||
| Detroit Pistons | 5th – 14.84% | 6th 26.0% | 7th 7.02% | ||
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 5th – 7.24% | 6th 25.74% | 7th 16.74% | 8th 2.19% | |
| Indiana Pacers | 5th – 2.22% | 6th 19.61% | 7th 26.74% | 8th 8.68% | 9th 0.62% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 6th – 8.62% | 7th 29.77% | 8th 20.55% | 9th 3.68% | 10th 0.15% |
| Sacramento Kings | 7th – 19.72% | 8th 34.11% | 9th 12.88% | 10th 1.3% | 11th 0.03% |
| New Orleans Pelicans* | 8th – 34.47% | 9th 32.1% | 10th 6.75% | 11th 0.38% | 12th < 0.01% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 9th – 50.72% | 10th 25.9% | 11th 3.01% | 12th 0.09% | 13th < 0.01% |
| Washington Wizards | 10th – 65.9% | 11th 18.99% | 12th 1.2% | 13th 0.02% | 14th < 0.01% |
| New York Knicks | 11th – 77.59% | 12th 12.6% | 13th 0.4% | 14th < 0.01% | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 12th – 86.10% | 13th 6.7% | 14th 0.07% | ||
| Charlotte Hornets | 13th – 92.88% | 14th 2.34% | |||
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 14th – 97.59% | ||||
* If the Los Angeles Lakers’ selection, expected to go to the Pelicans, drops to 11 or 12, it will convey to the Memphis Grizzlies instead.
The remaining (playoff) teams will pick in reverse order based on standings:
| Team | Pick |
| New Orleans (to Hornets) | 15 |
| Atlanta | 16 |
| Brooklyn Nets (to Rockets) | 17 |
| Chicago Bulls | 18 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 19 |
| Toronto Raptors (to Spurs) | 20 |
| Denver Nuggets | 21 |
| Utah Jazz (to Memphis) | 22 |
| Philadelphia 76ers (may go to Nets) | 23 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 24 |
| Boston Celtics (to Spurs) | 25 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 26 |
| Miami Heat | 27 |
| Golden State Warriors | 28 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 29 |
| Phoenix Suns (to Thunder) | 30 |
Note: If the Pelicans make the playoffs, their first will go to the Hornets. If the Cavaliers make the playoffs, their first will go to the Pacers.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter, @EricPincus.
Note: Revised for final play-in results and tiebreaker results.
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