[The following scouting report is part of a series on potential 2023 draft prospects from Sports Business Classroom alumni.]

Dereck Lively II
Frame: 7’1″, 230 lbs
Position: Center
Team: Duke
2023 draft age: 19
Stats via The Athletic, ESPN, barttorvik.com, NBC Sports

Offense

With an offensive repertoire consisting primarily of alley-oops and putback finishes, Lively’s game is still a work in progress. He lacks court awareness and often falls into offensive tunnel vision. Of the 181 draft-eligible Division I centers, Lively’s usage rate ranks 161st, highlighting his lackluster offensive creation skills. Of Lively’s 73 made field goals this season, 50 have been dunks, showcasing his limited repertoire offensively outside of putbacks, alley-oops, and rolls to the basket. 

However, Lively’s free throw percentage ranks in the top half (71st overall) of the 181 players, at 63.6 percent, which could indicate a potential mid-range game at the next level. Moreover, Lively has a decent first step and exceptional length. If he can find a way to face up defenders in the post and use his height and reach to get to the basket, he should be able to draw contact from smaller paint defenders and finish above them at the rim. His estimated 7’7″ wingspan should keep on-ball defenders at bay and allow him to use his size to create space. 

Still, attempting just 3.5 shots per game is a clear sign Lively is not on the floor for his offense at this point in his young career. Even so, his decent body control and above-average athleticism could help Lively make an impact as a lob threat and offensive rebounder.

Defense

Lively has earned the trust of his coaches and teammates with his steady rim protection. He has recorded a blocked shot in all but two games this season and at least two blocks 20 times, emerging as the elite rim protector Duke and many scouts had envisioned. Lively leads all freshmen in block percentage (12.8 percent) and is third in the NCAA overall.

However, averaging 2.3 blocks per game compared to 2.7 fouls is a sub-par ratio. In context, of the nine players averaging more blocks per game than Lively, all but one (Jesse Edwards of Syracuse) averages fewer fouls per game. Lively’s defensive rating is in the bottom third of 181 eligible centers, and his defensive rebound percentage is 114th. The long, lanky center sometimes relies too heavily on his height and wingspan, resulting in slower defensive rotations and a lack of proper box-out methods. The athleticism is there, but improper footwork and lack of aggression allow opposing players to get around the young center. 

Nevertheless, LIvely is an excellent shot blocker with above-average body control for his age. He still has much to learn defensively in his rotations and weakside help, but as the backline of the defense, Lively can alter and block any shot. Sometimes to a fault, his eagerness to swat away shots at the rim can leave the basket vulnerable to cutting offenders. 

Looking Ahead

Coming to Duke as ESPN’s number one overall ranked prospect, Lively failed to meet the great expectation placed upon him to begin his college career. However, as his season progressed, he emerged as an elite rim protector, lob threat, and the team’s starting center. 

However, Lively has much work on both sides of the ball. His size and length won’t carry his game at the next level. Instead, he’ll need to be aggressive on the floor and in practice to grow as a player.

Aside from rolling to the basket and creating extra offensive possessions via the rebound, Lively is not a threat to score or play-make. Unless he has an easy shot at the rim, Lively will immediately pass to his nearest teammate, making his game easy to read and defend. 

He’s only two of 13 from three-point range, but the willingness to shoot if given space is a positive sign. In addition, playing limited minutes early in the season shows coachability and a commitment to improving. Anticipate a bench role early in Lively’s career. As his awareness and footwork improve, a starting role may be available eventually if he can develop and adequately showcase his lob threat and shot-blocking abilities.

He has a similar game (albeit a raw version) to Nic Claxton and Jarrett Allen, who have blossomed in the NBA. If he puts in the work, develops his post-game and shooting, and utilizes his length to his advantage, his low-first-round draft projection will garner a steal-worthy selection for any team.