Nikola Topić
Frame: 6’6’’, 201 lbs
Position: Guard
Team: Red Star (Serbia)
2024 Draft Age: 18
Stats via RealGM

Offense

In Europe, Topić is regarded as a generational playmaking talent, arguably the top NBA prospect at his position since Luka Dončić. A product of Serbian powerhouse Red Star, Topić debuted at the senior level at sixteen. Aside from playmaking, he stood out in his age group with the ability to get into a lane and finish in traffic. Last season, Topić made history by tying the youth Euroleague single-game scoring record with 49 points in a huge comeback win, most coming from inside the paint and free-throw-line (perfect 20 attempts). After winning the FIBA U18 European Championship and being named the tournament’s MVP last summer, the 18-year-old guard crushed the Adriatic league, averaging nearly 19 points and seven assists in the first half of the season, which made Red Star claim him back from a loan assignment with Mega to help them run their offense at the highest level of European basketball, the Euroleague.

Unfortunately, the second half of the season was not as bright for Topić. He suffered a knee injury three games into his new role, and it took him four months to recover. Four games after his comeback, he got injured again, and the initial diagnosis revealed a sprained left knee, which was also the case at the beginning of the year. Although Red Star announced that Topić’s injury won’t require surgery at the moment, it turned out to be a partially torn ACL. Eventually, Topić was never able to reach his peak form in his tenure with Red Star, averaging five points and three assists in fifteen minutes of action through seven games. 

Nevertheless, Topić was able to showcase his prowess as a playmaking ball-handler. Red Star has veteran talent, but Topić was not shy to take on the orchestrating role while maintaining an elite three-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. He had good chemistry with other guards, especially his de facto mentor, Miloš Teodosić. Together, they have made a couple of stunning two-man plays, and it’s intriguing to see if Topić gets to play a secondary creator off an elite playmaker in the NBA.

Topić is a big guard with a high feel for the game. He is a master pick-and-roll operator who can process the game at an elite level and has a bag of tricks to manipulate defenses. With veteran-like patience, he can dictate the game’s pace and stays composed under pressure, allowing the play to unfold. His court vision and ability to attack the angles with precise passing enables him to execute plays on his terms, not settling for what defense allows. For example, he can make an entry pass against tight defense, looking the defender right in the eyes. In this aspect, he reminds of a famous anecdote about Larry Bird, who used to tell his defenders precisely what he would do just before doing so.

Topić is a crafty ball-handler who controls the ball like an extension of his arm. He knows how to put his man in jail and drive through traffic with a change of speed. While at Mega, Topić’s primary scoring weapon was driving to the cup, and he was highly efficient at it, finishing at an elite 70 percent rate. Unsurprisingly, his role changed; his usage narrowed down to pass-first in Red Star, and he was not as aggressive as a scorer. His efficiency also decreased to a mediocre 39 percent from the field. However, it might have been an issue with the small sample size and the fact that he didn’t find his rhythm because he was out for so long. 

Topić has been in the low 30s from three throughout his career, but he’s an 88 percent career shooter from the free-throw line, which gives hope the touch is there to build upon. He will not become a high-volume shooter or a three-point threat in the NBA, but he has enough to keep defenses honest when they go under the screen or give him space on the perimeter.

Defense

Topić has good positional size, but his level of physicality and overall defensive energy leaves a lot to be desired. Like many talented offensive players, Topić prefers to save his energy on defense and is assigned to easier tasks. Other bad tendencies include giving up on the play and switching off once his man is off the ball.

Topić lack of lateral quickness prevents him from being an effective on-ball defender. He’s easy to catch off balance with dribble moves and navigates through screens poorly, often getting stuck under the pick and leaving shooters uncontested. Theoretically, Topić can provide some switchability and avoid targeting thanks to his size, but he’s a no-go one-on-one against quicker ball-handlers.

Topić’s high feel for the game and quick reactions allow him to grab a healthy dose of rebounds for his position and occasionally make steals, thanks to anticipation and intelligent positioning. Still, he’s slow-footed to recover and lacks the verticality to contest shots on the closeout. Sometimes, his movements look as if he’s a veteran already or simply has a low defensive motor. A recently torn ACL may have further negative implications.  

Looking ahead

While already proven capable of facilitating the offense at a high level, Topić main area of improvement will be extending his scoring range beyond the paint and eventually improving his three-point percentage (30.6 percent on 3.7 attempts per game this season). This will determine his upside as an offensive initiator at the NBA level, where he won’t be able to get as many mismatches on switches and easy baskets at the rim, especially considering he’s a below-the-rim scorer. If he manages to convince NBA decision-makers he can progress in this direction, Topić can go as high as top pick in an uncertain draft (though the injury may drop him down a bit). He would be sought after by teams that need a floor general long-term and can afford the wait for Topić to rehab and mature. Ideally, Topić starts his career playing as a backup after some experienced playmaker.

Topić is similar to one of Serbia’s all-time great point guards, Teodosić. He’s a unique basketball mind with the size and skill to dominate the game. While Teodosić arrived at the NBA late and didn’t leave his stamp on the league due to poor conditioning, Topić is one of the youngest players in the draft who will not turn nineteen until August and has all the time in the world to make it work. ACL injury might have affected his pre-draft stock, but he can become a steal for a competitive team if he drops down the board.