Nikola Jokic enters the season on the outskirts of a very exclusive NBA trio, including Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird. 

If he wins this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player award, he will join those legends as the fourth to receive the league’s most prestigious individual award in three consecutive seasons. This year’s race might be the most even we have seen, with no clear frontrunner.

The current MVP odds, according to FanDuel, as of January 4, 2023:

  • Luka Doncic +280
  • Giannis Antetokoumpo +350
  • Jayson Tatum +420
  • Nikola Jokic +500
  • Kevin Durant +700
  • Joel Embiid +1300

Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokoumpo are not among my Top 3 MVP Candidates as it currently stands.

Are they being snubbed? Perhaps. 

However, compared to his 2019-2020 MVP Campaign, Giannis’s numbers are down across the board (field and three-point percentages, along with points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game). Embiid makes a definitive case for himself with his averages of 33.5 points (career best), 9.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists (also a career high) per game while leading the league in defensive win shares. Still, he has missed a considerable number of games. If either big man can propel his respective team to the top of the East while proving durable, they would crack my top three. 

There is no perfect algorithm or AI to calculate precisely what makes a player most valuable to his respective team. Some factors include advanced statistics, team standings, number of games played (durability), and the good old-fashioned eye test. There is always the question of defensive impact, though it tends to be an award that leans toward top offensive players.

Given the above metrics, which include both objective data as measured through advanced statistics as well as an element of subjectivity, my top three MVP candidates are as stands:

LUKA DONCIC (34 points, 8.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game – through 1/9/23)

It is not mere recency bias that has propelled Doncic to the very top of the list. A 60-point, 21-rebound triple-double didn’t hurt his cause.

What’s most impressive to me is that Luka Doncic currently has his Dallas Mavericks sitting fourth in the Western Conference standings.

The case for Luka as the current frontrunner is simple. The Mavericks are worse if you replace him with any other player on the MVP list. Doncic has, by far, the least support from his teammates relative to the other candidates. If that’s not a wonderous display of “Luka Magic,” then I reckon I don’t know what is. 

NIKOLA JOKIC (25.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game)

The back-to-back MVP might ruffle some feathers if he takes home another trophy this year. Many were upset that he was picked over Sixer’s center Joel Embiid, who was the runner-up to Jokic in each of the last two seasons. Most advanced data supports Jokic as the clear frontrunner, despite some arguing that he doesn’t pass the subjective eye test or isn’t an elite defender. 

Say what you want, but Nikola Jokic has his Denver Nuggets sitting first in the Western Conference, despite Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. missing time this season. 

JAYSON TATUM (30.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game)

Tatum is the best player on the league’s best team. That’s an argument in and of itself. He emerged in last season’s NBA Finals run as a bona fide scorer poised to take over the NBA. He certainly has made that leap into an elite two-way threat. His unique combination of tight handle, strength, length, and shooting touch make him a nightmare matchup for opposing teams. If Boston keeps winning at its current clip, it will be hard to make a case against the young superstar. 

So who will it be? The Slovenian magician who’s been on an absolute tear of late? The uber-efficient advanced statistic king? Or the best player on the league’s best team?

The race seemingly tightens each week that goes by. We may see a first-time recipient like Doncic or Tatum take the crown. Or maybe Jokic earns himself a spot at the now four-party table, telling Mr. Russell, Mr. Chamberlain, and Mr. Bird to move the hell over.